The State Of Guitars
In 2006 the Music Industries Associations (MIA) compiled a report on the state of the fretted instrument market. The findings essentially tells us that the fretted instrument market is fantastic! Reportedly 50% of Britons now play guitar in some capacity. Sales of electric guitar doubled in 2005 compared to 1999. All market segments are growing proportionately, with those associated with the electric guitar experiencing slightly stronger growth.
So why the success?
Reason 1: Economics
Low labour costs in the far east have made guitars more affordable. Budget brands become more powerful as those who are unfamiliar with the guitar market (but desire to learn due to fashion) make choices largely dependant on price. The increased threat of the budget brand meant that the bigger and famous brands have all capitalised providing their own budget product line. Meanwhile on the amplifier front, technology has also had on impact of cost and digital modelling is becoming one of the best value for money options.
Today, the affordability of the products within the fretted instrument market has meant that what used to be a “considered purchase”, has now become an “impulse purchase”. In other words, more people are buying musical instruments for fun rather possessing a desire to produce music or play with other musicians.
Reason 2: Fashion – Popular Music
Since the millennium, the world has seen guitar based bands return to popularity. On the British side, bands such as Coldplay, Franz Ferdinand, Snow Patrol, Kaiser Chiefs, KT Tunstall, The Kooks and Artic Monkeys
The American side is more diverse in terms of music genres but includes Nickleback, Maroon 5, John Mayer, Avril Lavigne, Fall Out Boy and My Chemical Romance.
These bands were just some of the few guitar based bands who were the best selling artists since 2000.
It was now fashionable to play guitar as some of your favourite songs are played on guitar. People who aren’t likely to play guitar started to, (particular note should be given to Avril Lavigne who according to many retailers, have made guitars more popular in the female market).
If those bands weren’t good enough, then The Who’s first studio album in 24 years and the reunion of Led Zeppelin surely had some effect.
Reason 3: Fashion – Video Games
2005 to 2007 saw what I consider a spin off of the air guitar – ‘Guitar Hero’.
Guitar Hero is a series of games developed by ‘Red Octane’ and ‘Activision’. The purpose of guitar hero is to play along to popular guitar based songs by pressing the corresponding buttons on a guitar shaped controller. This game was so popular among people of all ages (even non gamers), that it has spawned six versions, with a further two being developed right now (it also prompted a competitor in the form of ‘RockBand’).
The game’s appeal was not just pressing buttons, but to do it in a way where the player lived their out their dreams as rock stars. Another appeal was the addition of famous guitar based songs, and the endorsement of many of the major musical instrument brands. Not only could you play along to Black Sabbath’s ‘Iron Man’, but you could do it on a Gibson SG!
The phenomenon of Guitar Hero also meant that many of musicians with songs featured in the game experienced a boost in record sales. Not only was guitar music in the form of the bands mentioned previously popular, but history’s Rock culture was now accepted; and what embodies Rock more that guitars?!
Reason 4: The Baby Boomers
Without a doubt, guitar music was at its peak during the 60s to 70s. The Beatles, The Rolling Stones, The Who, Pink Floyd, Cream, Jimi Hendrix, Aerosmith and Led Zeppelin (just to name a few).
Those who grew up with this music are still representing it by their consumption. The most profitable demographic for the fretted instrument market has always been those aged between 15-20. However recently another demographic has emerged, the over 50s.
Having been occupied by their careers during their mid-life, these baby boomers are now in a position with the money, time and space to spend on their interests. Their taste for the 60s and 70s have created a demand for vintage gear (those used by their own guitar heroes). Second hand instruments are now called vintage and rare. While big brands are now relaunching reproductions of old models, marketing them as vintage reissues.
The baby boomers are the majority who are buying £1000 guitars and £2000 full stack amps (not the 15 year old beginner nor the 25 year old working musician). They are a large part of why the market is so strong.
Everything looks good for the fretted instrument market…
Except that with sales this strong, there is no where to go but down.
Since the MIA released their statistics, the following year showed problems. Music Trade released a report in 2008 which showed that 2006 experienced a huge drop in statistics (Unit Volume: Acoustic Guitar: -9.7%; Electric Guitars: -9.5%; Amplifiers: -12%. Retail Value: Acoustic Guitar: +2.2%; Electric Guitars: -8.3%; Amplifiers: -9.2%). 2007 showed a slight rise, but not enough to match 2005’s stats.
The fact is, whether slowly or quickly the market will decline for the next few years. There is a possibility the sales will continue to grow for the short term, but remember, the market is at its strongest in history, if it continues to grow we have question where the limit is.
Those who have bought equipment in the last few years probably don’t need anymore (particularly the casual players). The market is sure to experience a rough few years, and it seems it hasn’t done anything to combat this (there is a naive notion that a wider consumer base will mean that the number who want to “upgrade” their equipment will be higher. Although this is feasible, it is not a sound strategy).
The question that remains is, what will happen in the next 10 years?
The reasons for growth in the market I have mentioned are not long term.
- Britain could be coming onto an economic recession…
- Popular music tastes are already changing here in the UK, as there seems to be less guitar music, and more electronic music…
- Guitar Hero is fun, but how long can it go on for? (the six versions that have been released are all essentially the same!)
- What about the Baby Boomers? once their generation passes, then those who experienced the golden age of guitar music first hand will be gone. Led Zeppelin recently reformed and generated a lot of interest amongst younger players, but what happens when there are no more bands from the 60s and 70s to reform? Will the taste for vintage style equipment stick around after the baby boomers? Will it disappear? Or will it be a niche?
Where is the industry going?
